Methode 'Praktische Logica':
Methode van
Causale analyse
Voorbeeld Causale analyse:
Effect van TBS 'behandeling' - 25 jaar na vrijlating.
VRAAG: Heeft TBS een 'behandel' effect op de recidive-risiso's van ex-gedetineerden?
Vergelijking tussen recidive-scores van 'reguliere' ex-gedetineerden en ex-TBS'ers:
Vanaf 1977 resp. 1974, na een periode van 25 jaar na vrijlating.
Zie schema hieronder voor de ontnuchterende resultaten.
Enkele highlights uit deze resultaten:
We hanteren hierbij een maximale waarde voor de foutkans (alpha) van 5 procent als criterium voor de significantie van de afgeleide populatie-correlatie.
Daarnaast hanteren we een maximale waarde voor de foutmarge (epsilon) van 5 procent als criterium voor de betrouwbaarheid van de geschatte 'N=1' steekproefwaarde t.o.v. het populatiegemiddelde.
Verder hanteren we een minimale waarde voor het betrouwbaarheidsinterval (Confidence interval) van 95 procent .
Conclusies:
• De ex-tbs'ers deden het 25 jaar na vrijlating
gemiddeld nogal wat slechter dan de ex-gedetineerden (van vergelijkbare groep). Nog slechter dan 10 jaar na vrijlating.
• Het gevonden verschil blijkt significant voor de totale populaties.
• Voor een willekeurig individu in de populatie maakt Tbs-'behandeling' binnen 25 jaar na detentie nagenoeg geen verschil voor diens recidivekansen.
• Het gevonden verschil blijkt significant voor de totale populaties.
• Voor een willekeurig individu in de populatie maakt Tbs-'behandeling' binnen 25 jaar na detentie nagenoeg geen verschil voor diens recidivekansen.
Zie verder ..
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Recidive van Tbs'ers:
waar ligt de sleutel?
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Methode 'Causale analyse' ©.
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Methode 'Praktische Logica' ©.
Overzicht
van
analyse-gegevens:
1. Table Input-Form Causal Analysis - Project data |
|
|---|---|
| Parameter | Value |
| Analysis/ method | Chi-square based analysis of causality |
| Project (title) | Causal analysis; TBS Recidivism Prevalence 0-25yr |
| Hypothesis | Crimin: (Psychop.+TBS) CE! - CE - - CE --> (less Recidive/Psychop. /+Therap.effect) |
| Name of 'cause' A1 (keyword) | True(Psychop.+TBS) |
| Name of 'effect' B1 (keyword) | NOT (Recidive) |
|
Max. tolerated exception due to non-random error (alpha); Sample Effect-difference unexplained - general value (prb.) |
_________________________________0.05_____________ |
| Testing one-sided or two-sided | _________________________________2________________ |
2. Chi-Square table: groups and data of observations |
|||
|---|---|---|---|
| Condition description | Cases with effect present /detected (+B1) | Cases with effect absent /not detected (-B1) | Cases regardless of effect (±B1) |
| Cases with cause present /detected (+A1) | _________________500 | ________________1705 | ________________2205 |
| Cases with cause absent /not detected (-A1) | ________________1807 | ________________3357 | ________________5164 |
| Cases regardless of cause (±A1) | ________________2307 | ________________5062 | ________________7369 |
3. Test statistics - Summary. |
|
|---|---|
| Parameter | Value |
| 3. 1. Chi-Square sample statistics | |
| 3. 1. 1. Chi-square statistic | |
| Chi-Square (val.) | _______108.995728199 |
| Sample size N (num.) | ______7369__________ |
| 3. 1. 2. Sample Correlation and related statistics | |
| SAMPLE CORRELATION (corr) | _________0.121618728 |
| Sample Variance explained (ppt.) | _________0.014791115 |
| 3. 1. 3. Sample Significance of correlation | |
| Max. Popul. Effect-difference explained (prb.) | _________0.999999999 |
| Popul. Effect-difference explained; significance surplus (prb.) |
*________0.024999999 |
| 3. 2. Proportions to conditional probabilities | |
| 3. 2. 1. SAMPLE PROPORTIONS | |
| Total Hits (ppt.) | _________0.523408875 |
| 3. 2. 2. CONDITIONAL probabilities | |
| Conjunct Prob. (Cause,Effect) (product) (prb.) | _________0.147409854 |
| 3. 2. 3. CAUSALITY QUADRANTS | |
| Max. Symmetrical valence (prb.) | _________0.523408875 |
| 3. 2. 4. LOGICAL probabilities | |
|
Logical subsumption, coverage of conclusion; overall condition: symmetry (A1  B1) (prb.) |
_________0.143731384 |
| 3. 3. Test sample proportion to population value | |
| 3. 3. [1a.] Population is Infinite; Distribution is Continuous | |
| Popul. Effect-increase explained; infinite; continuous (prb.) | _________1._________ |
| Popul. Effect-increase expl.; infin.; contin.; significance surplus (prb.) |
*________0.025______ |
| 3. 3. [1b.] Population is Infinite; Distribution is Discrete | |
| Popul. Effect-increase explained; infinite; discrete (prb.) | _________1._________ |
| Popul. Effect-incr. expl.; infin.; discrete; significance surplus (prb.) |
*________0.025______ |
| 3. 3. [2a.] Population is Finite; Distribution is Continuous | |
| Popul. Effect-increase explained; finite; continuous (prb.) | _________1._________ |
| Popul. Effect-increase expl.; finite; contin.; significance surplus (prb.) |
*________0.025______ |
| 3. 3. [2b.] Population is Finite; Distribution is Discrete | |
| Popul. Effect-incr. explained; finite; discrete (prb.) | _________1._________ |
| Popul. Effect-incr. expl.; finite; discr.; significance surplus (prb.) |
*________0.025______ |
| 3. 4. Test difference of 2 sample proportions | |
| 3. 4. [1a.] Population is Infinite; Distribution is Continuous | |
| Popul. Effect-increase explained; infinite; continuous (prb.) | _________1._________ |
| Popul. Effect-increase expl.; infin.; contin.; significance surplus (prb.) |
*________0.025______ |
| 3. 4. [1b.] Population is Infinite; Distribution is Discrete | |
| Popul. Effect-increase explained; infinite; discrete (prb.) | _________1._________ |
| Popul. Effect-incr. expl.; infin.; discrete; significance surplus (prb.) |
*________0.025______ |
| 3. 4. [2a.] Population is Finite; Distribution is Continuous | |
| Popul. Effect-increase explained; finite; continuous (prb.) | _________1._________ |
| Popul. Effect-increase expl.; finite; contin.; significance surplus (prb.) |
*________0.025______ |
| 3. 4. [2b.] Population is Finite; Distribution is Discrete | |
| Popul. Effect-incr. explained; finite; discrete (prb.) | _________1._________ |
| Popul. Effect-incr. expl.; finite; discr.; significance surplus (prb.) |
*________0.025______ |
| 3. 5. Compare sample proportion with reliability margins of population average | |
| 3. 5. 1. TEST PROPORTIONS, DIFFERENCE SAMPLE vs. POPULATION | |
| Max. Popul. Effect-difference, explained (prb.) | _________1._________ |
| 3. 5. 2. TEST 1 SAMPLE PROPORTION to POPULATION CONFIDENCE INTERVAL | |
| Effect in exp. group, outside of interval; significance surplus (ppt.) |
*________0.103253496 |
| 3. 6. Compare proportions-difference with reliability margins of population average | |
| 3. 6. 1. TEST DIFFERENCE of 2 POPULATION PROPORTIONS | |
| Max. Popul. Effect-difference, explained (prb.) | _________1._________ |
| 3. 6. 2. TEST DIFFERENCE of 2 SAMPLE PROPORTIONS to POPULATION CONFIDENCE INTERVAL | |
| Effect-increase in exp. group, outside of interval; significance surplus (ppt.) |
*________0.101373102 |
| 3. 7. Sample correlation to population prediction | |
| 3. 7. 1. Population Correlation and related statistics | |
| Max. POPULATION Correlation (CORR) | _________0.121618728 |
| Min. Population Variance not explained (ppt.) | _________0.985208884 |
| 3. 7. 2. Significance of population correlation | |
| Max. Popul. Effect-difference explained (prb.) | _________0.999999999 |
| Popul. Effect-difference explained; significance surplus (prb.) |
*________0.024999999 |
| 3. 8. Population correlation to individual prediction | |
| 3. 8. 3. Population sign estimation for individuals, overall | |
| Max. Accuracy of popul. sign prediction, overall (ppt.) | _________0.538808518 |
| Max. Popul. sign estimation, overall, difference (ppt.) | _________0.461191481 |
| Max. Effect-difference explained; (relative) significance surplus (prb.) |
¬_______-0.911191481 |
| 3. 8. 4. Population decile estimation for individuals, overall | |
| Max. Accuracy of popul. decile prediction, overall (ppt.) | _________0.101304832 |
| Max. Effect-difference explained; (relative) significance surplus (prb.) |
¬_______-0.948695167 |
| 3. 8. 5. Confidence of sign prediction for individuals | |
| Max. Confidence of sign prediction, indiv. (prb.) | _________0._________ |
| Max. Effect-difference explained; (relative) significance surplus (prb.) |
¬_______-0.95_______ |